Saturday, February 12, 2011

Testing it but dont have a name for it yet

Ran my ruler over CFE.
I dont want to explain the mechanics of it here, but need to jot a few notes down and here is a semi public place and I feel like I have to put a few of these things out there.
Backtest CFE.

Much of this was backtest which is not always the same as forward test. Another problem can be when the inventor can become less than totally objective in assessing the results. Markets go through different cycles which could mean the next turn in market sentiment could be the last time something like this system ever comes close to fitting. I should also mention, the application of any system is the true test, so it does not matter how well it may fit, it really comes down to how possible it is to trade the system. I have not traded this stock with this system but have traded other stocks with it and am more than happy with the improvement it has added in conjunction with my existing methods
Rather than quote results so far across the markets, I'll confine this to CFE.
Of the significant pivot high points in CFE since 2007..
Pivot on ......Missed Tgt by............ Time window
26/3/07....... 0.5c ......................Within window
25/6/07...... 4.0c .......................within window
27/9/07 not projected (no signal)
26/2/08....... 1.0c ...................... within window
31/3/08 not projected (no signal)
21/7/08.........0.5 ....................... 3wks outside window
16/1/09 not projected (no signal)
23/11/09 .......0.5 ......................within window
20/1/10 not projected so ...6c ..............2mths outside
the last pivot high had no signal and this was a failure of the system because of the significance of the pivot. Not happy with this last result.

predicted next pivot 68 to 74, first time window week of 14/2/11.
Price is there now, will a pivot eventuate ????

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