Away to a good start, trading account is currently up 9% since the 1st Jan. The long term account is mostly cash. Have been taking profits as stocks pop up and will remain cash if the market continues to show signs of distribution phase occurring.
I guess I should put a few of my trades here, have been posting a few to Sharescene but would be easier for me to look back and review if placed here as well.
One trade which has been detailed on SS as it has developed is worth transferring the past posts over here is PPX

PPX 15/12/10

Very interesting to have this situation of multiple days 1 tick spread, it is obvious that (for now) there are no owners prepared to sell lower than 41.5 and no buyers prepared to pay up through the 42c level. Also the volume sold down matches the buys bought up today
The low volume confirms the lack of supply and considering the time this stock has spent in downtrend, it might be fair to say that all impatient sellers have exited.
Once the bidders realize that nobody will sell to them, the impatient ones among them will start to buy higher and a swing high will start.
The only spanner in this outcome is if a big player wants to test once more that all selling is done, if you are big enough and already have accumulated across the base Oct/Dec, you could throw enough onto the market to tip price below current levels and see if you trip any final stops.
I love a chart at this point, wish I could find one just like it EVERY day.

PPX 16/12/10
I'll take low volume breakouts off a sideways base which had signs of no supply,, any day.
IMHO
If you had a base which showed demand overwhelming supply,sure, you need high volume on the break to show the market there is sufficient demand to overcome the still available supply.
However coming off a no supply base, a rise on low volume is more sign that low supply continues even at higher prices.

Once price rises by 1 or 2 times the existing average range, supply increases as short timeframe swing traders begin to fill the bid with shares purchased prior to the move. Often you see an increase in volume in the afternoon on a rising stock, could be the daytraders selling into the demand prior to close. I believe there was sideways from 3pm yesterday with about 170k worth of selling. Earlier in the session, the rise from 42 to 44 on low vol was all due to no supply.

Supply could arrive today, 45 was my swing high target and wouldn't be surprised to see another test of support soon

PPX 20/12/10

bought 1/2 back 43.5, looking for 42 for the balance. Out Friday at 45 target mentioned earlier

PPX 21/12/10
This is pretty much how the pattern goes.......so far.

Shakeout and accumulate, when eventually the push lower costs more to move down than he's able to pick up on the lows, that will be the point where a new trend begins.
Yesterday 1.9m to range 3.0c
Today 3.2m to range 2.5

Dump 1m at 3.20 which triggered about 600k in stops and sells (1m dumpee... av say 41.5c)
3.40pm 200k of buyers into the next wave of panic
3.50pm 600k and only 1 tick move... someone buying into that supply
4pm match 570k no decline in price..someone still buying (dumpee.. buy back av say 40.25c = a no cost average down)
Probably be able to buy the remaining panic tomorrow at 5c less than he had to pay two days earlier.
These guys can keep doing this till they have transferred our account dollars into theirs.
Just my opinion how this game is played. Think I mentioned a few posts back 38.5 possible.

Yesterday and today did not go exactly to plan (its the market..what else should I expect). I had expected price to make a step stair down from the 45c level to prior support @40.5ish.
If things had gone to plan there may have been an opportunity to gain another cent or so, lower average as price bounced down the stairs.

With the pattern being a possible base formation (called "crossing the creek". refer VSA/Wyckoff), I'm not interested in being short, so the only way to scalp a little more is to own some and look to sell the minor bounces as price comes back down. So I split my buys according to my method and hope it bounces in the right places to allow the plan to work.
I'm relying heavily on reading of the chart and having the volatility stay within the parameters I've been monitoring, otherwise it all turns to poo...
Yesterdays drop range was about double the volatility I had anticipated and today was also a wider range than hoped for.
I've been forced to scramble now, sold today at (1.75c loss 41av),then bought the close 40c.
I still see 38.5 as possible and more likely now that more supply has emerged when induced by the dump. I would be happy if price is unable to be driven to there. I believe strength is visible on the down bars and weakness is seen on up bars.
If price drops below 38.5 plan B.

Its a little hard to write some of this stuff, you sort of need to know a bit more about my money management and trading style and at same time I'm not willing to divulge what I consider is my "edge", that is also part of the whole picture.
At this stage I've decided on a $ amount to invest in trading this stock, see if I can get set then scale into a bigger trade using profit to finance the risk

11/01/11
So far, I'm comfortable staying in this trade, seems like a normal attempt to test lower limits of supply and I still would not be surprised to have part of the test include some trade breach below the 40c level in an attempt to drain any stops on the part of weak holders.

If it is correct that a big player has a campaign in progress (and I believe this to be the case), he will want to ensure he has flushed out whatever final supply that exists in the hands of anxious sellers.
This is necessary for the next stage of his campaign of advancing price from the low created when supply is finally exhausted.
Even the big players can not know exactly when there will be no more sellers left, all they can do is continue to push price lower as they accumulate.
Sometimes they know in advance of the general market that good news is coming, this ties in with a common accumulation strategy of using the news as the initial boost from the low to advance price towards their planned profitable sell level.

16/01/11


Price action in the last couple of days is showing progress with the least line of resistance now appearing to be to the upside.
Here's how I am reading what's happening.
The 12th Jan indicated no supply was left at the 40c mark, after the 40.0c low of the day before.

Next day on 13th Jan, the gap up 1/2c is significant because it suggests the lack of supply was noticed by some traders, who are now becoming more eager to buy than there are sellers availabe to sell. Am not saying all gap up opens should be read as similar, it has to be read in context with what has preceded the gap.Price closed on the high and whilst there was not huge volume, a quick check of the intra-day chart shows almost no selling down with demand gradually eating through the limited supply throughout the day. Around 3.10pm a sell test had no follow through with price back above 43c.

Then the 14th Jan around 11.00am a sell back down to 42.5c was on extremely low volume suggesting there is still no supply even at the higher level. Demand continued to exceed supply for the rest of the day, again closing on the high.

I'm more confident that the next test of strength will be above the 40c level. Accordingly I have now raised my stop closer to that level which, has allowed me to add to this position due to the reduction in risk. If price action continues to show strength on each test of lows, I will one more time, add to this position, again controlling risk by lifting the stop. A next test back to 41.5 or 42 fits my plan prior to a possible explosive expansion in price.